Net migration is one of the drivers of population growth in any country. Estimating net migration is problematic except in countries that have reliable population registers. In the context of South Africa, the problem is partly due to outdated data on immigration and emigration from the Department of Home Affairs. There is often reliance on census data for the estimation but apart from a few countries in Africa, censuses do not usually collect information on emigration. The 2022 South Africa’s census included some questions on migration but not on emigration. Although the questions did not differentiate between documented and undocumented migrants, it is possible, that some of the foreign-born persons living in South Africa at the time of the 2022 census may have answered that their country of birth is South Africa. It is essential to evaluate the plausibility of the migration information from the 2022 census. Examination of the pattern of migration from the data is also essential. Using the 2022 census 10% sample data, the evaluation showed that overall, the sex-age structure of foreign born at the time of the 2022 census is generally consistent with expected age selectivity in migration.
Also, the evaluation indicated that the percentage of foreign-born living in South Africa at the time of the 2022 census was only 3% of the total population of South Africa in 2022. Gauteng had the largest share (49%) of the total number of foreign-born living in South Africa at the time of the 2022 census, with the North West having the least share (1%). While Gauteng, the Western Cape and the North West had a net gain of life-time interprovincial migration among South African born living in South Africa at the time of the 2022 census, the other provinces had a net loss, with the Eastern Cape and Limpopo having the largest net loss. It is unlikely, that censuses in South Africa can provide the true absolute numbers of foreign-born living in South Africa at the time of census. However, demographic modelling can provide insights.
Author: Emeritus Professor Eric O Udjo (PhD, London) 2025
